The Syrian crisis has unfolded over 13 years, marked by mass anti-government protests during the Arab Spring, the Assad regime’s violent crackdown, and the escalation into a civil war. This conflict has seen the use of chemical weapons, the rise and defeat of the Islamic State (IS), and extensive foreign interventions. Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah provided decisive support to Assad, while Turkey and the United States pursued competing interests in the region. These events triggered one of the largest refugee crises in modern history, altering global migration policies and security paradigms.
The recent ouster of President Bashar al-Assad by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) signifies a major geopolitical shift. Assad, in power for over two decades, represented authoritarian rule rooted in the Alawite minority. His regime suppressed dissent brutally, further deepening ethnic, sectarian, and religious fractures. While HTS has assumed control, questions linger about the transition, governance, and future trajectory of the nation.
Governance Pattern
Syria's governance under Assad was defined by centralization, repression, and sectarian favouritism. Despite initial portrayals as a reformist, Assad’s violent response to peaceful protests during the Arab Spring cemented his authoritarian legacy. HTS, which evolved from extremist roots linked to the Nusra Front, now seeks to reposition itself as a legitimate governing force. It has pledged to maintain public institutions and foster stability while distancing itself from its jihadist past. However, ensuring inclusivity in governance is a daunting task in a country deeply fragmented by years of war. Establishing credible institutions to manage the transition and address public grievances will be crucial for domestic and international legitimacy.
Current Risks
Syria’s transition post-Assad faces a complex array of risks that could destabilize its fragile peace. The challenge of transitional justice looms large, as addressing decades of atrocities must balance accountability with reconciliation to avoid deepening societal fractures. Internally, the nation’s deep ethnic, sectarian, and religious divides threaten inclusive governance, while Kurdish aspirations for autonomy and potential reprisals against the Alawite minority further complicate unity. Externally, the power vacuum has intensified regional rivalries, with Turkey, Israel, and Gulf states seeking influence, and Russia facing diminished leverage due to its focus on Ukraine. These foreign interventions risk exacerbating domestic tensions. Additionally, the governance vacuum creates fertile ground for extremism, with groups like the Islamic State and factions within Hayat Tahrir al-Sham poised to exploit socio-economic grievances. Compounding these issues is Syria’s economic devastation, which has left millions in poverty and dire need. Without a coordinated approach addressing justice, governance, external interference, and reconstruction, these interconnected risks could derail Syria’s path to stability.
Response of Allies
International actors have reacted based on their strategic priorities. Russia, Assad’s staunch ally, faces a strategic setback with the potential loss of military bases in Syria. Turkey has bolstered its proxies and expanded its influence in the northeast, seeking to counter Kurdish autonomy and assert dominance in post-Assad governance. The United States, though supportive of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, is cautious about engaging with
HTS due to its terrorist designation. Meanwhile, Israel has escalated military operations, advancing its interests in the region. Gulf states are leveraging the transitional phase to secure influence, balancing support for reconstruction with geopolitical objectives.
The Way Forward
To navigate Syria’s complex transition, a multifaceted approach is essential. Establishing an inclusive transitional government that reflects Syria’s diverse ethnic, religious, and sectarian groups is the cornerstone for long-term stability. This inclusivity fosters domestic legitimacy and reduces the risk of renewed internal conflict. Transitional justice mechanisms must
address past atrocities transparently and equitably, balancing accountability with reconciliation to avoid exacerbating divisions. International actors should collaborate to support Syria’s reconstruction, prioritizing humanitarian needs and infrastructure development while avoiding actions that intensify proxy conflicts. Efforts must also focus on preventing a resurgence of extremism by addressing the socio-economic and governance voids that fuel radicalization. A concerted global commitment to Syria's recovery, guided by principles of inclusivity, justice, and sovereignty, is imperative to transforming the nation’s trajectory and ensuring peace for its people