Iranian Missile Development
Iran has made significant development in its missile development program, especially over the last 10-15 years, focusing on both short range and medium range capabilities. The Iranian arsenal comprises various missile types including:
- Shabab 3: A medium range ballistic missile with a range of 1300km.
- Khorramshahr: Capable of reaching targets 2,000 km away, designed for a payload of up to 1,800 kg.
- Fateh-110: A short-range missile with precision targeting capabilities, effective within a 300 km radius.
However, despite their significantly development in range, the Iranians have also been focusing hugely on developing “enhanced precision guided munitions”, allowing them to hit targets a lot more accurately with a circular error probable (margin of error) of around 10-30 meters.
This development has been driven by a combination of engineering efforts in Iran and technology acquired through alliances, mainly with north Korea and Russia. Despite the crippling sanctions placed on Iran by the west, the Iranians have still managed to enhance the accuracy and range of its missile systems.
Missile Barrage Against Israel
At the start of October 2024, Iran launched a significant missile barrage targeting Israel, firing almost 200 ballistic missiles, marking a huge moment in escalating tensions in what is now known as “Operation True Promise 2”, as second attack with the first being witnessed earlier on in April of 2024.
Iran's missile arsenal includes approximately 1,500 ballistic missiles, which are capable of striking key targets in Israel, including military bases and economic infrastructure. These missiles, such as the Shahab-3 and Khorramshahr, have ranges of up to 2,000 kilometres, providing Iran with the ability to reach major cities, seaports, airports and military bases in Israel.
The barrage reportedly included both short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), reflecting Iran's ability to conduct large-scale strikes against Israel.
Economic Development Under Sanctions
Iran’s economy has shown significant resilience despite facing severe sanctions from the west, particularly the United States, with a reported GDP growth of 3% in 2024. This recovery can be attributed to increased domestic production and reduced reliance on oil exports which had declined to about 1 million barrels a day because of sanctions. 
The Iranian military budget also witnessed an increase of 20% in the past year, reflecting Iran’s prioritisation of military capabilities despite significant economic challenges.
Iran’s non-oil exports also saw a rise, with major trading partners including China, which has become a crucial economic lifeline for Iran.
Potential Outcomes of Full-Scale War with Israel
A full-scale war between Iran and Israel could lead to widespread regional instability, with extreme consequences for both sides. Iran's missile capabilities along with its proxy allies in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria, and Yemen, would likely lead to retaliatory strikes on Israeli territory and even more destabilization of neighbouring countries.
In the event of significant escalation, Western powers, particularly the U.S., would likely intervene. The U.S. has a strong military presence in the Middle East, which could lead to a broader military conflict involving direct engagements or airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure. This situation could spiral into a larger confrontation, drawing in additional regional actors and possibly affecting global oil markets, as Iran is a major oil producer