Israel and Hezbollah
Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have significantly escalated since July of this year, marking some of the worst border clashes since the 2006 Lebanon War. A series of events, beginning in late July, has driven the conflict to new heights. It has been reported by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) that nearly 8000 incidents of artillery fire from Israel were recorded and around 1000 from Lebanon.
The human toll has also been severe. In Lebanon, approximately 180 people have been killed, including both militants and civilians. On the Israeli side, the death toll stands at around 70, including both military personnel and civilians living near the border. The ongoing conflict has displaced nearly 100,000 people in Lebanon and forced around 96,000 Israelis to flee their homes in the north.
On the 30th of July, Israel carried out a targeted strike in Beirut, killing senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, who was involved in past operations against Israel. This incident caused a retaliatory campaign from Hezbollah, leading to an exchange of rocket fire across the Israel-Lebanon border. On the 3rd of August, Hezbollah launched dozens of rockets into northern Israel, most of which were intercepted by the Iron Dome, however, the volume of fire highlighted a noticeable increase in hostilities. The Israelis also assassinated Hamas’ chairman on the 31 July 2024, in Tehran, Iran. Both assassinations, caused mass concern globally, with even the US secretary of State stating that the US was not “aware of or involved in” Haniyeh’s murder.
The situation further deteriorated on the 9th of August when Israel bombed multiple Hezbollah infrastructure sites in southern Lebanon, following additional rocket launches from the group. This exchange led to casualties on both sides, with Israeli officials warning of a possible large-scale conflict if provocations continued.
Israel, the U.S., and Iran: Heightened Tensions
The relationship between Israel and the United States has also been under strain, mainly due to rising tensions with Iran. Since July 2024, Israel has been vocal about its concerns regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions and its support for Hezbollah. The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, on July 30 by Israel, has worsened the situation. This event led to severe condemnation from Iran and its allies, including Hezbollah.
The U.S. has also imposed additional sanctions on Iranian entities, further straining relations. In response, Iran has increased its military presence in Syria and has reportedly enhanced its support for Hezbollah and other proxy groups. This has raised concerns about a potential wider conflict involving multiple state and non-state actors in the region.
The U.S. has attempted to mediate, with Vice President Kamala Harris reiterating support for Israel's right to defend itself while expressing hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the tensions. Despite this, Israel remains vigilant, preparing for potential escalations both on its northern border with Lebanon and concerning Iran's regional influence.
Impact on Markets and Commodities:
The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East since July 2024 has had a pronounced impact on global markets. Oil prices have surged, with Brent crude rising by 9% since mid-July, driven by fears of supply disruptions in key shipping lanes such as the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz. Current estimates suggest that a significant escalation could push oil prices to between $140 and $157 per barrel, a huge increase that would have substantial economic repercussions globally.
Other commodities like gold have also seen price increases as investors seek safe-haven assets amidst rising geopolitical uncertainty. The broader market reaction has been one of caution, with investors pulling back from riskier assets. The economic outlook for the Middle East remains bleak, with GDP growth in the region expected to drop to just 1.5% in 2024, massively below pre-conflict projections.
Human Rights Violations by Israel in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria
Since July 2024, there have been significant reports of human rights violations attributed to Israeli military actions, particularly in Gaza but also extending to Lebanon and Syria.
In Gaza, the situation has been dire. Israeli airstrikes have resulted in massive civilian casualties, with some estimates suggesting tens of thousands of dead, including a significant number of women and children. For instance, a strike on a school in Gaza City in August killed nearly 100 people, many of whom were seeking shelter. The United Nations and various human rights organizations have condemned these actions as potential war crimes, particularly due to the targeting of civilian infrastructure like schools and hospitals. Additionally, the blockade imposed by Israel has severely restricted the flow of humanitarian aid, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.
In Lebanon, Israeli strikes have targeted areas in the south, leading to civilian casualties and widespread destruction. The ongoing conflict with Hezbollah has also resulted in human rights concerns, particularly related to the indiscriminate nature of attacks. The exact numbers of casualties in Lebanon have been difficult to verify but are reported to be significant and in the hundreds.
In Syria, Israeli airstrikes have continued, these strikes have also resulted in hundreds of civilian deaths according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, and have further destabilized the region, contributing to the ongoing humanitarian crisis.