Azerbaijan, a nation in the Caucasus and a former Soviet Republic, is holding parliamentary elections on September 1, 2024, which is just a week away. The country recently had presidential elections in February 2024, where Ilham Aliyev, who has been President since 2003, began his fifth term. Before him, his father, Heydar Aliyev, served as president from 1993 to 2003. Azerbaijan gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, making it a relatively new country in terms of political development, similar to Lithuania, which declared independence in 1990.
Milli Mejlis: Also known as the National Assembly, the Milli Mejlis is the legislative branch of government in Azerbaijan, focusing on laws and national concerns. It comprises 125 members elected for a five-year term. Although the Milli Mejlis discusses important issues and has the power to amend laws, it operates with limited independence. The president has the final say and the Milli Mejlis often aligns with presidential policies, as most members are from the New Azerbaijan Party (YAP), led by Ilham Aliyev.
These elections were initially scheduled for November 2024 but were moved to September 1 to avoid clashing with the UN Climate Change Conference, which will be hosted in Baku (the capital of Azerbaijan) this November. There was some criticism from opposition parties, but ultimately, Aliyev dissolved parliament on June 28, and his party is preparing for next week’s elections.
The main parties in the Milli Mejlis are as follows:
- New Azerbaijan Party (YAP): Founded by Heydar Aliyev in 1992, YAP is the -ruling party in Azerbaijan. It has been in power since 1993, first under Heydar Aliyev and then his son, Ilham Aliyev. YAP is a center-right party that promotes strong centralized governance and economic development. It dominates the political scene and controls most of the seats in the National Assembly.
- Musavat Party: Musavat is one of the oldest and historically significant parties in Azerbaijan, with roots dating back to the early 20th century. It advocates for liberal democracy, economic reforms, and stronger ties with the West. However, it has been marginalized in recent years due to governmental pressures
- -Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan (PFPA): This party emerged from the nationalist and independence movements of the late 1980s and early 1990s. It is one of the main opposition parties and advocates for democratic reforms, human rights, and reducing the power of the presidency. The party has faced significant restrictions, and its leaders have often been arrested or harassed.
- Civil Solidarity Party (VHP): A smaller party that tends to support the government, it was founded by Sabir Rustamkhanli in 1992. It generally aligns with YAP on many issues but maintains an independent stance.
- Azerbaijan Democratic Reforms Party: This is a more recent political force advocating for modernizing the state, strengthening democracy, and improving governance. It is considered a centrist party and has participated in various coalitions.
- Azerbaijan National Independence Party (ANIP): Founded in 1992, ANIP was the first officially registered political party in post-Soviet Azerbaijan. It is a nationalist-conservative party and has been a vocal critic of the ruling party, though it has lost influence over the years.
Republican Alternative Party (ReAl): A newer opposition party that has gained some traction among younger voters. It advocates for democratic governance, rule of law, and economic reforms. Its leaders have faced political repression.
These are the major players, though the dominance of the New Azerbaijan Party significantly limits the influence and effectiveness of opposition parties. The political environment in Azerbaijan is tightly controlled, with opposition parties facing significant barriers to full participation in the political process. Most of these parties have an average of one member in the Milli Mejlis, with three members from the VHP party and 69 from YAP. The rest are independents and vacant seats, making up the 125 members.
- Wider Picture
- Azerbaijan’s GDP in 1993 was $1.57 billion. By 2022, it had risen to $78.72 billion. Under the leadership of Heydar and Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan's economy expanded 50-fold, primarily driven by its oil and natural gas exports, which make up 95% of its exports. With ongoing Russian sanctions and the approaching winter, Europe’s energy crisis may further boost Azerbaijan’s GDP. Despite hosting the UN Climate Change Conference in November, Azerbaijan’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels is ironic. The UNCCC has been active since 1997, nearly 30 years, but its achievements have been questioned.
- Another critical issue is Azerbaijan’s conflict with Armenia, centered on the Nagorno-Karabakh region. This area, internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but primarily populated by ethnic Armenians, has been a flashpoint with deep historical roots.
Key Phases of the Conflict:
- First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994): This war began in the late 1980s as ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh sought to secede from Azerbaijan and unite with Armenia. It resulted in an Armenian victory, with Armenian forces taking control of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding Azerbaijani territories. The conflict ended with a ceasefire in 1994, leaving the region under de facto Armenian control, though not internationally recognized.
- Intermittent Clashes (1994-2020): Despite the ceasefire, the region remained highly volatile, with frequent skirmishes and clashes along the line of contact. Efforts to resolve the conflict, primarily through the OSCE Minsk Group, made little progress.
- Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020): In September 2020, full-scale fighting erupted again, resulting in a significant Azerbaijani victory. Over six weeks, Azerbaijan recaptured much of the territory lost in the 1990s, including parts of Nagorno-Karabakh. The war ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire on November 10, 2020, which saw Armenia cede control of additional areas surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan.
- Post-2020 Tensions: Since the 2020 war, tensions have remained high, with occasional clashes. Peace talks are ongoing, focusing on issues like the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh and the rights of its ethnic Armenian population. Azerbaijan and Armenia are under international pressure to reach a lasting peace agreement, but deep-seated mistrust and unresolved issues make this challenging. The conflict has resulted in thousands of deaths and many more displaced, remaining a flashpoint in the South Caucasus with broader implications for regional stability. With Ilham Aliyev in power, it is uncertain whether a peace agreement will be reached or if the Milli Mejlis might consider another full-scale war