Recent mass protests in Turkey, which erupted in early 2025, have drawn widespread attention both domestically and internationally. These protests, primarily driven by economic distress and dissatisfaction with the government, have led to questions about Turkey’s future political and geopolitical trajectory. This article examines the immediate geopolitical consequences of these protests, analyzing their potential effects on Turkey’s foreign policy, regional influence, and its relations with both Western and regional powers.
Introduction
Turkey has long held a critical position in global geopolitics due to its location at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Its role as a member of NATO, coupled with its complex relationships with regional powers, makes its internal dynamics of considerable geopolitical
importance. In early 2025, widespread protests erupted across the country, ignited by a severe economic crisis, increasing authoritarianism, and frustration with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government. As the protests unfold, it is clear that their implications stretch beyond Turkey’s borders, potentially reshaping the country’s foreign policy and regional standing.
Drivers of the Protests
The protests in Turkey are primarily fueled by economic hardship. The Turkish lira has suffered
significant devaluation, inflation has spiraled, and the cost of living has soared to unprecedented levels. These economic struggles, coupled with growing concerns about government corruption and the erosion of democratic norms, have led to widespread public discontent. In addition, President Erdoğan’s increasingly authoritarian approach, including the suppression of political opposition, the media, and civil society, has amplified frustrations. Protesters have also expressed concern over the government’s handling of foreign policy, particularly regarding Turkey’s military involvement in Syria, Libya, and the Eastern Mediterranean.
These domestic issues have caused growing unrest within Turkey, but they also carry significant geopolitical ramifications. Turkey’s foreign relations and regional influence could be affected as the protests challenge the stability of the Erdoğan government.
Geopolitical Consequences For Turkey's Foreign Policy
The recent protests come at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions in Turkey’s foreign relations. The Erdoğan administration has pursued a foreign policy focused on increasing Turkey’s influence in the Middle East and asserting its regional power. Turkey has engaged in military operations in Syria and Libya, and its actions in the Eastern Mediterranean have led to confrontations with Greece and Cyprus over maritime claims.
The protests, however, could force the Turkish government to reconsider its approach to foreign engagements. If domestic unrest weakens Erdoğan’s political standing, it may result in a shift in Turkey’s foreign policy priorities. A more internally focused government might reduce Turkey’s involvement in regional conflicts, which could, in turn, lead to a shift in the power balance in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. Alternatively, in an attempt to rally nationalistic sentiment, the government may double down on its assertive foreign policy, leveraging military and diplomatic power to maintain control.
Impact on Turkey's Relations with the West
Turkey’s relationship with the West has already been fraught with tension in recent years. The purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system and Turkey’s military actions in Syria and Libya have strained its ties with NATO and the European Union. The protests add another layer of complexity to this already strained relationship. Western governments, particularly the European Union and the United States, have expressed concerns over Turkey’s domestic political trajectory, with increasing reports of crackdowns on opposition groups, civil society, and media freedoms.
If the protests lead to significant political changes in Turkey, such as a shift in leadership or a change in governance, there could be a realignment in Turkey’s relationship with the West. A new government may seek to mend ties with NATO and the European Union, potentially adjusting its foreign policy to align more closely with Western interests. Alternatively, the Erdoğan administration could resist Western pressure, using the protests as a justification for asserting Turkey’s independence from the West and increasing its alignment with countries like Russia and China.
Turkey's Role in Regional Stability
The protests have the potential to affect Turkey’s ability to project power in its region. For years, Turkey has sought to increase its influence in the Middle East, leveraging military force, diplomacy, and economic ties. In Syria, Turkey has been involved in both direct military interventions and in supporting opposition forces, while its actions in Libya have further complicated the North African geopolitical landscape. Additionally, Turkey has been involved in territorial disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean, primarily with Greece and Cyprus over energy exploration rights.
A weakened Turkish government, distracted by internal protests, may struggle to maintain its current level of engagement in these regional issues. Should the government be forced to focus inward to resolve domestic unrest, Turkey’s role as a regional power could diminish, opening up space for other actors, such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Egypt, to increase their influence in the region.
Conversely, a government that remains in power despite the protests might intensify its foreign interventions to maintain control and project strength. This could lead to further militarization of Turkey’s foreign policy, particularly in areas where it faces competition for regional dominance.
Conclusion
The recent protests in Turkey are a clear reflection of domestic dissatisfaction with the current government, primarily driven by economic hardship, authoritarian practices, and dissatisfaction with foreign policy. These internal challenges, however, have significant geopolitical ramifications. As Turkey grapples with its internal strife, the implications for its foreign policy, relationships with the West, and regional power dynamics are profound. Whether the protests lead to a shift in Turkey’s political landscape or a further entrenchment of the current government, the outcome will undoubtedly have lasting effects on Turkey’s geopolitical role in the Middle East and beyond.