Both India and the European Union find themselves in a new unpredictable geopolitical landscape. With trade tensions exacerbated to unthinkable heights by the current US administration of Donald Trump, both entities look elsewhere for stability in a world filled with rivals and threats. Even with their differences on what is a close partner for India and existential threat for Europe, Russia, both powers find themselves reliable and mutually interested partners in each other in this increasingly unstable world. Despite this commonality though, domestic and foreign political realities still create challenges for this growing relationship.
New World, Old Partners
In February President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen had a two day visit to India along with senior staff of the EU executive branch. This comes with efforts to finalize a free trade agreement long in development since 2007 that would only add to the already existing cooperation that exists between the two entities. EU and Indian trade has risen consistently since the signing of a strategic partnership in 2004 that emphasized the mutual democratic and shared values of both. The reason for this particular recent spark in renewed interest from both comes in light of the rise in trade tensions that have only gotten more volatile since the meeting and geopolitical ire with the new administration in the United States lead by Donald Trump and its position particularly related to China.
The global tariffs undoubtedly have made not only Europe but also India see the need for de-risking from the United States.
While China has usually always been the topic of such a concept, the recent behavior from the United States has made things apparent that both economic heavy hitters must be talked about in such a context. These feelings can be most seen in ambitious concepts such as the India-Middle East-European Economic Corridor or IMEC, a project that Gulshan Sacdeva, a European Studies professor says can be described as a response to China’s popular Belt and Road program. Despite these both unexpected but optimistic shifts though there are several factors that may cause pause in the growing of this bilateral relationship.
Contradictory Security Relationships
India’s relationship with Russia is one that goes back to the time of the Soviet Union. There is deep ties in economic areas but largely defense with India being a very large and frequent customer of Russian weapons. A relationship absolutely goes into consideration in Brussels being Russia stands has Europe’s top security threat at the moment with the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. The weighing of strategic value of EU-India relations against the inconvenient Russo-Indian relationship seems to be in the EU-Indian favor at the moment with the president’s visit and the EU’s continued developing of the relationship though it is no doubt a problematic thorn that could rise to be not so easy to ignore in the future. Glimmers of European Union state involvement in India’s arm suppliers comes in the form of France that just beats the United States but still stays very low behind Russia with only at 29% of imports while Russia sits at a comfortable 45%. Though it should be noted that Russian share of imports dropped from 62% from 2017 to 2022.
While this seems to come from a more pragmatic goal of diversification it is no doubt positive news to Brussels that is currently weighing the costs and benefits of this relationship. Apart from a stable economic and possibly geopolitical partner in light of recent events, another attractive benefit comes in India relieving the pressure of an increasingly aging population in Europe.
Easy Solution, Risky Cost
India’s large population of more than 1.4 billion people offers European a large market for European goods and services and also a large workforce to also assist in addressing its bloc wide shortages. With Indian foreign workers being already a proven attractive addition to economies in the Anglosphere, particularly the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, and the United States, and an open and willing cooperative attitude with India’s EU ebony, Saurabh Kuma expressing that India has the “skilled and talented manpower that could match the bloc’s needs” the opportunity in the face of Europe's increasingly aging population is not something to pass up on. India, according to Sit Sharma, an independent consultant working for the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship of the Indian government, currently has over 600 million people who are between the ages of 18 and 35.
This is compared to a country such as Germany in which the median age is 45 and only has 14 million people in the mentioned age group. There are multiple current routes for young Indian students in countries like Germany, Italy, and France though a known political anxiety for almost all European countries right now is illegal migration. India has expressed in its multiple current agreements its willingness to cooperate with the return of those who do not have the proper documentation and this has become a key positive factor for a Brussels pressured by right wing populism fueled by voter sentiment around topics of illegal migration. Though even legal avenues for new presence in the continent for many European states has become topics of problematic contention with asylum and simply immigration at times being topics flayed around in parliaments. Still, the opportunity India offers to address a growing European concern paired with willingness to cooperate on occurrences generally sensitive for European state and European wide institutions is something that one shouldn’t turn themselves away from.
What does this mean?
Both India and Europe find themselves in a situation of mutual interest though there are obstacles to overcome if their cooperation can be truly something seen as a viable alternative in this changing world. European security concerns currently do not outweigh the benefits of a closer relationship with India but such a thing should not be taken for granted. India offers a viable and pragmatic solution to European problems of aging and manpower shortages but anxieties over immigration must be a focus for Brussels as well. Finding stability in each other in this new world will take work, but recent efforts show that there is a new motivation to make it happen.
