Russian hybrid warfare continues to pose a persistent threat to European countries, targeting both EU-member states aligned with the US and non-aligned Eastern European nations. These sophisticated campaigns are strategically designed to create unrest and dissatisfaction within these regions. As the conflict in Ukraine persists, European support hinges on electoral outcomes in several EU states. Countries like Romania have taken measures, such as annulling elections compromised by Russian interference, to safeguard their democratic processes. Meanwhile, Germany is preparing for its election season, anticipating similar hybrid attacks aimed at swaying public opinion and causing political turmoil. The situations in Romania and Germany highlight the ongoing crisis faced by European democracies in defending against this threat.
TikTok, Telegram, and Romania
- Romania's 2024 election featured key candidates Calin Georgescu, an independent nationalist, and Elena Lasconi from the Save Romania Union party, with Marcel Ciolacu close behind. Georgescu's platform included halting aid to Ukraine and opposing the NATO missile defence shield, whereas Lasconi favoured strong ties with the EU, US, and NATO, along with increased support for Ukraine.
- Prior to the election, declassified intelligence revealed a surge in activity among 25,000 pro-Georgescu TikTok accounts, many activated only weeks before the vote. These accounts coordinated content distribution through Telegram, complemented by alleged paid influencer promotion and undeclared electoral spending by Georgescu’s campaign. This activity pointed to Russian-linked election interference, creating a volatile political climate.
The Romanian Constitutional Court annulled the first-round vote in response, a decision seen as destabilizing. While intended to protect democracy, it may have undermined public confidence in the political system. The polarized nature of the court, viewed as politically influenced, complicates matters further. This self-defensive action, though damaging to democratic perception, inadvertently aligns with Kremlin interests. Romania's experience serves as a cautionary tale for countries like Germany preparing for their elections.
The German Situation
Romania’s experience has heightened concerns among German officials as their own elections approach, with potential hybrid attacks looming. Germany's interior ministry has established a task force to combat disinformation, sabotage, espionage, and cyber attacks, with an emphasis on election-related disinformation. The effectiveness of this centralized effort remains to be tested.
- German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has warned about the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and the populist left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW, as divisive forces echoing Russian narratives. The Russian IT firm Social Design Agency actively supports the AfD through memes and disinformation linking support for Ukraine to Germany's economic and social issues.
With the 2025 German federal elections set for February 23, polling indicates declining support for the current Social Democratic Party government and a rising alignment between the AfD and the Christian Democratic Union. Russian hybrid operations aimed at increasing societal discontent in Germany are likely to intensify as the election nears. Although the likelihood of a Romanian-style electoral annulment in Germany is low, Romania's situation has deeply unsettled Germany's security infrastructure by highlighting the risks and self-harmful outcomes of defending against such attacks.
These scenarios underscore the critical need for robust defences against Russian hybrid warfare to safeguard European democracies, illustrating the complex and dangerous landscape that they navigate in maintaining democratic integrity.