In the wake of former President Moon Jae-in’s indictment for bribery, the South Korean confidence in democracy is waning. After Yoon Suk Yeol, the most recent President, was impeached last December, and eventually removed earlier this month, a snap election was announced to be held by June 3, a chance for the people to reshape the nation’s future. Yoon’s declaration of martial law, and the subsequent fallout is the largest political upheaval South Korea has faced since its democratic transition in 1987.
What began as a governance issue has now
shifted the geopolitical order, as Trump’s
tariffs, Chinese pressure and North Korea
military advancements continue to test the
resilience of institutional apparatus. This case
is emblematic of the influx in anti- democratic
trends across the globe, with stark political
polarisation amidst a large power vacuum
rendering the near future challenging to
foresee.
A Costly Gamble
Although in recent months Yoon’s presidency and leadership of the People Power Party (PPP) has been placed under international scrutiny, civic instability has been steadily mounting since his narrow election win in 2022. Though his supporters remain a loud minority, Yoon’s approval ratings have reached historical lows of 19%, indicative of a surge in anti-democratic trends. In particular, Yoon often leveraged his far right support base, from engaging with conservative influencers on Youtube and citing various conspiracy theories to justify his illegal declaration of martial law on December 4. This was passed under the impression of Yoon to ‘eradicate shameless pro North Korean anti-state forces’, bypassing the very system he vowed to preserve.
Whilst the order lasted a mere six hours, after the National Assembly and opposition democratic party unanimously revoked the unexpected move, its political fallout is vast. At that moment in Yoon’s presidency, he was doused in a corruption scandal, investigation claims regarding his wife, and in a budget bill gridlock. His attempted autogolpe was a political gamble to establish control of his government and supporters, which failed almost immediately. 10 days later, the impeachment motion was passed. Despite the swift response of institutional bodies such as the Constitutional Court and the National Assembly, public trust has inevitably eroded. In fact according to the OECD, only 37% of Koreans reported high trust in national government bodies in 2023, a concerning decline from 49% in 2021. Now, with a snap election to be held by June 3, this is an opportune moment to hold leaders to account. Voter engagement and the election outcome will highlight the state of South Korea’s democratic health.
Leadership in Disarray
Accounts from South Korean residents liken Yoon’s tumultuous leadership to that of the military dictatorships of Chung-hee and Chun Doo-hwan in the 1980’s. This is especially evident in terms of media control and censorship of dissenting voices, in which both leaders restricted the press to stifle those with legitimate concern of their respective regimes. Though, in recent years this tactic has infiltrated digital platforms, widening the scope for misinformation to flourish. That said, it is important to acknowledge the complexity of Yoon’s administration, which cannot be labelled as solely regressive.
Specifically, the Camp David Summit in 2023, which strengthened trilateral alliances between the US, Japan and South Korea, underscored economic, diplomatic and security based agreements, especially regarding China’s growing presence. Although this was significant for the geopolitical landscape of northeast Asia, the newly imposed tariffs and the slowing economic growth of South Korea has complicated such relations. This, combined with Trump’s disruptive approach to foreign relations, notably regarding military expenditure could restrain cooperation between these nations.
Uncharted Global Dynamics
Whilst efforts were made to consolidate diplomatic ties with Japan and the US, Yoon’s endeavour in wider foreign policy often amounted to rhetoric, with the promise to embody a ‘global pivotal state’ left unfulfilled. The Indo-Pacific Strategy established in 2022 epitomises this, with South Korean agencies leaving the drafting to the relevant North American bureaus, signalling the half hearted commitment of Yoon’s administration. In particular, safeguarding around the South China Sea and monitoring of the Taiwan Strait were key objectives of the agreement, yet a clear implementation strategy has not been found. Furthermore, Yoon failing to condemn China’s human right abuses against Muslims alongside 50 U.N member states, whilst simultaneously calling for the investigation of North Korea’s human rights issue is indicative of an alternative agenda at play.
At a closer glance however, Yoon’s commitment to the Camp David Summit proposal, combined with his
monumental participation in the 2022 NATO summit, advocating for humanitarian aid for Ukraine added another layer of nuance to his unpredictable regime. Across regional and international contexts, Yoon has largely made empty pledges, deepening skepticism not only among South Korea, but on the global stage. The forthcoming snap election leaves South Korea at the cusp of recalibrating its democratic credibility amidst shifting alliances.