Germany’s Elections: A Political Landscape Overview
Germany’s elections draw near. Whatever the results, navigating the soon-to-be complex political landscape may be difficult for onlookers. Regardless of whether one is reading this before or after the election, this article provides a useful map of the key issues—migration, European foreign relations, and defence—for the top polling contenders in the 2025 election.
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU)
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is often regarded as the conservative or centre-right party in Germany. Established after the Second World War, it has traditionally maintained a pro-European stance with Christian values at its core. Over time, this stance has evolved into a broader cultural outlook that prioritises tolerance while upholding a ‘dominant culture’.
The party’s current agenda signals a conservative shift, particularly on migration. Unlike its former leader Angela Merkel, CDU leader Friedrich Merz, a former investment banker, advocates a tighter asylum policy and a “de facto freeze on asylum admissions at the border.” This policy may clash with European rules under the Geneva Convention.
Foreign Affairs and Defence
- The CDU aims to maintain defence spending at 2% of GDP, in line with NATO obligations—a target already met by Olaf Scholz’s government.
- It proposes changes to Germany’s stance on Ukraine, particularly regarding the use of Taurus missiles to strike within Russia.
The CDU currently leads the polls at 30%, with the question of coalition partners still uncertain. While the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens are potential options, one party remains excluded from consideration.
Alternative for Germany (AfD)
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a far-right party targeting the CDU’s traditional base, particularly in East Germany. Originally formed in opposition to Germany’s Eurozone crisis policies in 2013, the party has since been reshaped by the European migrant crisis and CDU-led immigration policies.
Currently led by Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel, the AfD maintains more radical positions than its competitors.
Key Policies
- Economic stance: Advocates abolishing the Euro (€) and returning to the Deutschmark.
- Migration: Strongly anti-immigrant, with controversial campaign tactics such as distributing “deportation tickets” to voters—potentially violating German incitement laws.
- Foreign policy: Historically sceptical of the US, though the new Washington administration may shift this stance. Notably, some party figures, such as Björn Höcke, support rapprochement with Russia and Vladimir Putin.
Despite a unified stance among other parties to exclude the AfD from coalition talks, its rising support indicates an enduring political sentiment. The party currently polls at 20%, just ahead of the SPD.
Social Democratic Party (SPD)
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) is one of Germany’s oldest political parties, established in 1875. It has a rich history, from opposing Hitler’s Enabling Act to being split between East and West Germany before reunification. Today, the SPD holds the most seats in the Bundestag but saw its coalition with the Greens and Free Democratic Party (FDP) collapse in 2024.
Policy Stance
- Migration: While acknowledging a rightward shift in public sentiment, the SPD maintains a moderate stance—limiting irregular migration while facilitating legal immigration for workers.
- European relations: Strongly pro-European.
- Defence: Supports NATO spending at 2% of GDP but takes a more cautious approach to military engagement. Olaf Scholz’s reputation for hesitation on Ukraine and European defence has caused tensions in discussions with Britain and France, particularly regarding potential European force deployments under pressure from the Trump administration.
The SPD currently polls at 16%.
Alliance 90/The Greens
Alliance 90/The Greens was formed in 1993 after the reunification of Germany, merging East and West German Green movements with the Alliance 90 political group. The party was previously in coalition with the SPD and FDP until the government collapsed in 2024.
Key Positions
The Greens currently poll at 13%, just below the SPD.
An Uncertain Bundestag
Germany’s post-election outlook remains uncertain. The CDU’s coalition options are complicated:
- AfD is excluded due to ideological differences.
- SPD remains a historic rival.
- The Greens may be even more ideologically distant.
Given that the last government collapsed despite ideological proximity, the next German administration is likely to be just as, if not more, unpredictable.