After a week of post-election political chaos (far more than usual) in Pakistan and the PTI (ind) securing a majority in the elections, This article will briefly explore the major players and economic problems Pakistan faces
Pakistan is a country that has long had its politics dictated by the military, witnessing four military coups and three unsuccessful attempted coups since the nation’s inception. With commercial entities valued collectively at over $39.8 billion, the military’s involvement spans a diversity of sectors (excluding politics) ranging from shipping services to cement and fertilizer manufacturing. It has long been believed that Pakistan is a military dictatorship that behaves under the guise of a democracy.
Pakistan saw widespread protest against the political system in May of 2023, this included protestors storming military installations and led to mass arrests and sacking of several officers
Setting the political landscape
Pakistan’s political landscape is dominated primarily by the PTI, PMLN, and PPP. The PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-Insaf), spearheaded by former playboy cricketer turned Islamist politician who subsequently became Prime Minister Imran Khan (currently in prison on charges of corruption), presents itself as an anti-establishment and non-corrupt substitute to the other parties. Their one unfinished term in power produced mixed results, such as reducing the current account deficit drastically, being ranked the 3rd best-performing country in regard to handling the pandemic, and wider social/health reforms.
However, with soaring inflation, reports of human rights abuses, and a deteriorating relationship with the military, Khan’s tenure is somewhat unnecessarily glorified by his supporters.
PMLN
The other dominant party is the PMLN (Pakistan Muslim League Noon), whose leader is Nawaz Sharif (serving 3 terms as prime minister). His party seems to believe that politics is a family business with his brother also having served as prime minister and Chief Minister of Punjab, and his daughter and nephews being key party members. The Sharif family was also mentioned in the infamous 'Panama Papers,' which created controversy in Pakistan, resulting in the decline of PMLN. Sharif was found guilty of corruption and sentenced to 10 years of which he served two months due to a “suspended” sentence; after this, he fled to London. Sharif’s tenures have been marred by ailing economic conditions, high debt, and heavy industrialization of mainly the Punjab province. He was also displaced in a military coup by General Musharraf in 1999 due to a misalignment of perspective between the government and the military
PPP
The final party is also a party that has adopted the idea of politics being a family business. The PPP (Pakistan People’s Party), headed by Bilawal Bhutto, the son of the late Benazir Bhutto who served two terms as Prime Minister. Bilawal’s grandfather, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, also served two terms as PM. The siblings of both Benazir and Bilawal also have some political standing and are regarded as symbols of the PPP. Finally, we come to Bilawal’s father, Asif Ali Zardari (co-chairperson), who served as president during Nawaz Sharif’s tenure as PM and was also indicted for corruption, supposedly exceeding 1.5 billion dollars. The Bhutto tenure regarding Benazir is often seen as an era of liberalization in Pakistan and great focus on social policy. Zulfikar’s tenure is somewhat even more leftist with all major industries after the 1971 war forced to become government-owned/managed; he was also a fervent nationalist. His tenure also ended at the behest of a military coup under General Zia ul-Haq (A fervent Islamist). He was subsequently executed and hanged. His daughter Benazir (the first female PM) was also assassinated
Foreign Relations
PPP and PMLN have had closer ties to the West and the US in the past, with the PPP and PMLN governments being staunch allies in the 'War on Terror,' allegedly in return for favourable loan deals. The PTI, however, seemed to follow a more independent foreign policy and believed firmly against Western involvement in Pakistan and the wider region. However, both governments had a great deal of alignment with China, with huge amounts of Chinese investment flowing into Pakistan. China has loaned Pakistan over $21 billion in the last two decades and is a key stakeholder in Pakistan’s infrastructure, owning the Gwadar Port as part of the once (now closed off) China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), designed to attract FDI and create jobs.
Economic Outlook
Pakistan is also stuck in a sovereign debt trap with debt rising 27.4% in 2024 and owing almost $130 billion dollars to external creditors, mainly the IMF and the World Bank. GDP is expected to grow around 2% in 2024. High debt, coupled with increasing interest rates supposed to combat inflation (25%), is further heightening the chances of default. A government with a better plan to structure debt repayment is necessary to take Pakistan out of this debt cycle; however, currently, Pakistan seems to lack an elected government.
It seems that an “invisible hand” or “hands” are responsible for distributing power in Pakistan. Can these hands direct the nation out of this dooming debt cycle?