Low Voting Turnout: Reflection of Instability or the Opposite?
Parliamentary elections were held in Iran, with Ebrahim Raisi maintaining leadership. Voting turnout was the lowest since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, at 41%. This low voter turnout highlights widespread dissatisfaction and apathy toward the current political system.
The electoral system shares a “fascist” foundation with its Russian counterpart, and candidates are subject to extreme scrutiny if they champion ideas that do not align with clerical views. At the top, you have the Supreme Leader, appointed by the Guardian Council, which also oversees the Assembly of Experts (responsible for overseeing the Supreme Leader), the President (elected every four years), and the Iranian Parliament.
The Iranian Parliament consists of 290 members who are publicly elected every four years. It drafts legislation, ratifies international treaties, and approves the country's budget. Despite this seemingly comprehensive political structure, the Supreme Leader technically has the final say on domestic and foreign policies. These parliamentary votes may be for show, but they have passed bills such as the Hijab Bill and facilitated negotiations and deals, including nuclear non-proliferation agreements and sanction relief.
Iran’s Economic Growth Amid Sanctions
Despite a storm of sanctions, Iran’s economy grew by 3% compared to last year. The largest exports are ethylene polymers and petroleum-based goods. Growth is mainly attributed to Iran’s large domestic manufacturing capacity, which produces between 60-70% of its industrial equipment domestically. This includes military hardware such as kamikaze drones, which have recently been sold to the Russian and Sudanese military and are in the possession of Iran-aligned groups such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas.
Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, has called for additional sanctions on Iran. However, critics argue that such measures could inflame tensions rather than diffuse them. EU officials noted that the Biden administration supports Borrell’s stance. Yet, the current ineffectiveness of sanctions suggests that further measures may prove futile.
Shia Radicalism and the Role of Religion
The Iranian regime follows Ja’fari Shia Islam and has enforced its version of Shariah law on its citizens. The government is deeply intertwined with the Shia clergy, who create laws based on their interpretation of Islamic principles. While some laws promote fairness, such as the indisputable right to seek justice for all Iranians, enforcement is riddled with corruption. Minorities, including Sunni Muslims and Zoroastrians, are treated as inferior, and the judiciary is known to be corrupt and susceptible to bribery—a fact even acknowledged by the Supreme Leader.
Ja’fari Shia Islam includes the belief in the occultation of a Twelfth Imam, who they believe will bring peace and justice to the earth when he reappears. A similar concept exists in Judaism, where the revival of the Messiah is thought to bring about the same outcomes. Whether these figures represent the same force or are antagonistic is a matter for deeper theological exploration. Nonetheless, the religious roots of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions are evident and appear to be worsening.
Internal Instability and Protests
Corruption, coupled with extreme laws, has worsened the socio-political climate in Iran. Anti-government protests have surged, often met with harsh regime responses, including life sentences and death penalties. Despite Iran’s growing network of militias and global influence, the fraught internal climate raises the possibility of a revolution—an outcome the current regime is all too familiar with and seeks to avoid.