Russia's attempts to reclaim Kursk Oblast in late 2024 have exposed critical flaws in its military strategy and operational effectiveness. Despite deploying a considerable number of troops and allying with foreign forces, the campaign has led to heavy casualties and significant equipment losses. This summary outlines the challenges faced by Russian forces, highlights gaps in military modernization, and presents recommendations to improve future strategic outcomes.
Recent Case: Russia's Campaign in Kursk Oblast
- In August 2024, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise offensive into Kursk Oblast, capturing over 1,300 square kilometres of territory. This disrupted Russian supply lines and required major reinforcements from other fronts.
- Ukraine's use of advanced drone warfare and superior tactics has resulted in significant Russian losses, including over 38,000 troops and more than 1,000 armoured vehicles by January 2025.
Russian forces struggled with outdated strategies and rigid command structures, leading to poorly coordinated assaults. For example, a Russian attack near Pogrebki ended in the destruction of several BTR-82 vehicles due to entrenched Ukrainian forces.
The reliance on foreign troops further complicated the campaign. Approximately 12,000 North Korean soldiers were deployed, but their unfamiliarity with the terrain and modern combat led to severe casualties, highlighting Russia's growing dependence on auxiliary forces.
Challenges in Military Modernization
Despite increased defence spending, systemic issues undermine Russia's military effectiveness:
- Impact of Sanctions: International sanctions since 2014 have restricted Russia’s access to advanced components, impacting its defense industry. Substituting imports with domestic products has proved inadequate for modern demands.
- Outdated Technology and Training: Russian troops deployed in Kursk often lacked adequate training, leading to high casualties. Logistical issues and shortages of critical supplies have also hindered sustained operations.
- Rigid Command Structure: A top-down command discourages innovation and adaptability, fostering a culture of fear and disinformation. This dynamic prevents effective dissemination of combat lessons.
Recommendations: Improving Russia's Military Performance
Modernizing Battlefield Tactics: Shift towards adaptive, decentralized decision-making and invest in training mid-level commanders for greater autonomy.
Enhancing Technological Capabilities: Focus on accelerating domestic production of advanced weapon systems. Collaborate with non-Western allies to mitigate sanctions' impact.
Improving Troop Training and Morale: Implement longer training cycles and equip reserve units. Enhance frontline conditions to boost morale and combat performance.
Strengthening Logistical Support: Modernize logistics infrastructure to ensure consistent supplies of ammunition, medical, and communication resources.
The conflict in Kursk Oblast has highlighted significant weaknesses in Russia's military strategy, from outdated tactics to inadequate logistics and training. While modernization efforts have begun, substantial gaps persist. Addressing these systemic challenges is crucial for Russia to maintain its influence as a credible military power. Meanwhile, supporting Ukraine's efforts remains vital for Western policymakers, as sustained pressure could further erode Russia's military capabilities, shaping a more favourable strategic environment in Eastern Europe.