Tunisia, the Northernmost country in Africa, is having Presidential elections on the 6th of October 2024. This could be a big shift in the region as the country tackles political turmoil, asylum seekers, and economic mismanagement.
Main candidates and opinion polls:
Before reading the below, it is important to point out that the elections have been characterized by significant repression of opposition figures. Many potential candidates have been disqualified, including prominent political leaders who were either imprisoned or barred from running. This environment raises serious concerns about the legitimacy and fairness of the upcoming elections. Anyway, here are the main candidates for the 2024 Tunisian Presidential elections.
- Kais Saied (Incumbent President)
- Background: Elected in 2019, Kais Saied is a former law professor with a strong constitutional background. His presidency has been marked by significant shifts towards authoritarianism, particularly following his 2021 decision to suspend parliament and govern by decree.
- Political Position: Saied presents himself as a populist and has leveraged his academic expertise to justify his actions, claiming he is restoring order and integrity in governance.
- Campaign Focus: His platform revolves around promises to improve public services such as health, education, and social security, emphasizing a return to Tunisia's "glory".
Controversies: His administration has faced criticism for undermining democratic institutions, and his electoral commission is seen as operating under his influence.
2) Zouhair Maghzaoui
- Background: A former member of parliament, Maghzaoui has been active in Tunisian politics for several years. He is associated with the People’s Movement party, which leans towards leftist ideology.
- Political Position: His candidacy is framed as a challenge to Saied’s policies, though specific details on his platform have been less publicized compared to Saied’s.
- Campaign Focus: Maghzaoui aims to attract voters disillusioned with the current administration, advocating for more democratic freedoms and economic reforms.
- Challenges: His campaign has to navigate the political repression and restrictions placed on opposition candidates, which limits his outreach efforts.
3) Ayachi Zammel
- Background: Also a former parliament member, Zammel has been involved in Tunisian politics and has faced his share of controversies. His candidacy adds to the limited options available to voters.
- Political Position: Zammel's political affiliation and specific platform details are less clear, making his public image somewhat ambiguous compared to Saied and Maghzaoui.
- Campaign Focus: He seeks to present an alternative to Saied's rule, although detailed policy proposals have not been prominently highlighted.
- Election Context: Like his fellow candidates, Zammel must contend with a highly controlled political environment, impacting his ability to campaign effectively.
4) Nabil Karoui
- In 2019, he founded the political party Heart of Tunisia (Qalb Tounes). The party emerged as a significant political force in the 2019 parliamentary elections, becoming the second-largest party in the Assembly of People's Representatives.
5) Youssef Chahed
- In 2019, Chahed ran for the presidency as the candidate of the Tahya Tounes party, which he founded. His campaign emphasized continuity and stability amid political turmoil, but he did not secure a place in the second round of the presidential election.
Candidates that faced disqualifications or legal issues:
- Lotfi Mraïhi: President of the Republican People's Union, disqualified for life due to a conviction related to vote-buying.
- Karim Gharbi: A rapper, also disqualified and sentenced to prison.
- Abir Moussi: Leader of the Free Destourian Party, sentenced to two years for spreading false news.
- Nizar Chaari: A television presenter, received an eight-month prison term related to campaign irregularities.
As of late September 2024, the opinion polls for the upcoming Tunisian presidential elections indicate a competitive landscape. Here are the percentages for the leading candidates based on the data:
- Kais Saied (Independent, Incumbent): Approximately 36%. Despite a decline in support since the last election, he remains a strong contender due to his incumbency.
- Nabil Karoui (Qalb Tounes): Around 28%. His party has retained substantial public support, although he faces legal challenges.
- Abir Moussi (Free Destourian Party): Close to 20%. Moussi has been gaining traction among voters seeking a return to more traditional governance.
- Youssef Chahed (Tahya Tounes): Roughly 10%. As the former head of government, he has a notable political presence but is trailing behind the frontrunners.
- Others (including Zouhair Maghzaoui and Ayachi Zammel): Collectively around 6%
Wider context:
Strategic Location in the Mediterranean
Tunisia’s geographic position at the intersection of Europe, Africa, and the Middle East gives it considerable strategic significance in terms of trade, security, and migration. It lies close to vital shipping routes through the Mediterranean, near the narrow Strait of Sicily, which is a key passage for maritime traffic.
- Mediterranean Trade and Security: Tunisia is part of the Mediterranean basin and has historical and economic ties with southern Europe, particularly Italy and France. Its location makes it an essential partner in addressing security concerns related to the Mediterranean, such as piracy, smuggling, and regional instability.
- Energy Security: Although Tunisia is not a major energy producer, it is close to Algeria and Libya, both significant oil and gas producers. Tunisia’s proximity to European energy markets makes it a potential transit route for energy supplies to Europe, especially as the EU seeks to diversify its energy sources away from dependence on Russia.
- Migration to Europe: Tunisia’s location makes it a key point of departure for migrants attempting to reach Europe via the Mediterranean. The country has faced increasing pressure from the EU to curb irregular migration, especially in the context of political instability and conflict in neighbouring Libya. Migration management has become a cornerstone of Tunisia’s relationship with the EU, with Tunisia often being seen as a buffer zone against waves of migration from sub-Saharan Africa and conflict zones.Role in the Arab Spring and Democratic Transition
Tunisia's status as the birthplace of the Arab Spring in 2011, and its success in navigating the post-revolutionary transition compared to other countries in the region, has
- Symbol of Democratic Change: Tunisia’s peaceful transition to democracy, with the adoption of a new constitution in 2014 and several free elections, stood out as a rare success story in a region where many other Arab Spring movements led to civil wars (Libya, Syria, Yemen) or a return to authoritarianism (Egypt).
- Political Instability and Its Consequences: Despite its initial success, Tunisia's political stability has been under strain in recent years. The 2019 presidential election brought Kais Saied to power, and in 2021, Saied suspended parliament, took over executive authority, and launched a series of controversial political reforms. His actions, which some view as an authoritarian rollback, have raised concerns about the future of Tunisia’s democratic experiment. Tunisia's political trajectory is being monitored by major powers, as its success or failure could have implications for democratic movements across the Arab world.
- International Diplomacy and Assistance: Tunisia’s democratic transition garnered significant international support, particularly from Europe and the United States, both of which view the country as a critical partner in promoting democracy and stability in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region. The European Union and the United States have provided Tunisia with financial aid, diplomatic support, and technical assistance to bolster its fragile democratic institutions and its economy.
Counterterrorism and Regional Security
Tunisia has faced serious security challenges, especially related to the rise of extremist groups following the collapse of the Gaddafi regime in neighbouring Libya. The Tunisia-Libya border has become a route for arms smuggling and the movement of extremist fighters. Several high-profile terrorist attacks, such as the Bardo Museum attack and the Sousse beach attack in 2015, highlighted the growing threat of extremism.
- Counterterrorism Cooperation: Tunisia has increased cooperation with Western powers, including the United States and the EU, on counterterrorism measures. The U.S. designated Tunisia as a Major Non-NATO Ally in 2015, reflecting its importance as a security partner in North Africa. Tunisia’s military and security forces have received training, equipment, and intelligence-sharing support to help combat extremist networks.
- Instability in Libya: Tunisia's neighbour, Libya, has been in a state of turmoil since the NATO-led intervention in 2011, which led to the fall of Colonel Gaddafi. The continued instability in Libya has had profound consequences for Tunisia, including the influx of refugees, economic disruptions, and security threats. Tunisia has played a role in international efforts to mediate between Libyan factions, although it has mostly sought to maintain a neutral position to avoid involving itself in the conflict.
Economic Challenges and Foreign Partnerships
The country has struggled with high unemployment, inflation, and public debt, which have led to social unrest. These issues make Tunisia heavily dependent on foreign assistance and partnerships.
- European Union: Tunisia has a close economic relationship with the EU, which is its largest trading partner. The EU-Tunisia Association Agreement of 1995 facilitated closer economic cooperation and trade liberalization. The EU has provided substantial financial aid to Tunisia, particularly following the 2011 revolution, to support its democratic transition and economic development.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF): Tunisia has been negotiating with the IMF for loans to stabilize its economy. These loans often come with conditions, such as austerity measures and economic reforms, which have been met with public resistance. Despite this, Tunisia’s engagement with international financial institutions remains critical for its economic survival, and these negotiations are closely monitored by its foreign partners, especially the EU and the U.S.
- China’s Growing Influence: Like many African countries, Tunisia has seen increasing Chinese engagement in recent years, primarily through infrastructure investments and trade. Tunisia participates in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to strengthen trade and connectivity between China and countries across Asia, Africa, and Europe. Although China’s presence is not as dominant in Tunisia as in other African states, it is gradually expanding, especially as Tunisia looks to diversify its foreign partnerships.
Migration and Refugee Crisis
Tunisia has become a critical player in dealing with migration flows from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe. The instability in Libya and other African countries has made Tunisia a key transit country for migrants and refugees seeking to cross the Mediterranean to Europe. Tunisia has been engaged in negotiations with the EU to curb illegal migration, with the EU offering financial incentives and support for Tunisia's coast guard to help prevent migrants from reaching European shores. In return, Tunisia has received aid and development support. However, these migration agreements have been controversial, as Tunisia struggles to manage the increasing number of refugees and migrants while trying to balance its relations with European countries.
Chinese & Russian Influence
Western Influence vs. Non-Western Powers: Tunisia has historically been closely aligned with Western countries, especially France, Italy, and the United States. However, the rising influence of China and Russia in Africa has made Tunisia a potential area of competition. While Tunisia remains more Western leaning in its foreign policy, it is increasingly exploring opportunities for partnerships with China and Russia, particularly in terms of economic investment and infrastructure projects in regard to renewable energy.