In light of the recent peace talks held by Armenia and Azerbaijan, we have decided to briefly cover the roots and importance of the conflict.
Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict:
The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict is better known as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and its roots can be traced back to around the late 1980s/early 1990s relating to the dissolution of the USSR (Soviet Union). The region itself is a mountainous one and is home to ethnic Armenians despite the territory being internationally deemed as Azerbaijani land. This complex situation has come to pass due to the change of influence over the region (Armenia and Azerbaijan) most recently from the Ottomans to the Soviets (1917) to eventually being autonomous (1988) and the redrawing of borders of the Armenian occupied region to contain as many ethnic Armenians as possible. The disputes over this border have escalated to such levels that the current Armenian prime minister Pashinyan is being ousted, with many calling for his resignation.
Azerbaijan has an estimated GDP of $78.7 billion which earns it around 80th place worldwide and is considered as an emerging upper-middle income economy. Whilst Armenia has an estimated GDP of $25.4 billion but a spending power of around $64.4 billion earning itself the rank of 115th worldwide in terms of GDP. Armenia is deemed moderately free according to the 2024 index. Despite both countries not being in a recession or in a negative economic climate as of recent, gaining the land in the Nagorno-Karabakh region would improve their standings financially as it has a substantial amount of gold, copper amongst other valuable materials. The financial aspect is a factor however, it does not appear to be the main cause behind the clashes that have occurred since the late 20th century.
Historical Context
Since the first conflict in 1988-1994 regarding Nagorno-Karabakh there has been 2 further ‘wars’ with low-intensity skirmishes and clashes being maintained between the periods without war. The first instance of a war since 1994 in the region was in 2020 and lasted for 44 days with Azerbaijan reaching victory by being backed by Turkey, this was evidence by the drones being identified as Turkish drones by military analysts. The result was several thousand casualties and a deal being mediated by ally Russia, who had good relations with both nations. The deal stated that all the land surrounding Karabakh was under Azerbaijani rule and the Karabakh territory itself was smaller than initially, but the Armenians could remain there. In spite of a deal being agreed it was received poorly from the Armenians and some declared it a disaster. A part of the deal stated that the Russians guard the Lachin corridor (the area connecting Karabakh and Armenia) with Azerbaijan promising safety upon the corridor.
Amidst rising tensions Azerbaijan set up a new checkpoint along the corridor In April of 2023, this raised tensions further with Armenia believing this to be a blatant violation of the truce agreed in 2020. Azerbaijan defender itself by stating that this was a preventative action against the movement of arms into the secessionist territories. Azerbaijan initiated a military offensive based on the violation of the deal that was struck up as the result of the second Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020, the operation targeted the separatist state of Artsakh. The offensive started on the 19th of September 2023 however by the 20th of the same month Russia had been called on to interfere and drew up another agreement which saw Artsakh disarmed and a decree to be signed by Samvel Shahramanyan declaring that all state institutions to be dissolved by January 1st, 2024.
The outcome of the first Nagorno-Karabakh was that Azerbaijan lost a large amount of territory to neighbouring Armenia with a population of Armenians remaining there till now, despite Azerbaijan promising they would reclaim the territory. Whilst since 1992 many ethnic Armenians have been driven out of Karabakh, there still remains a majority Armenian population in the region. Amidst the skirmish in late 2023 the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh agreed to a peace deal that would involve them integrating with Azerbaijan. Many Armenians had ‘left’ the land and this left a feeling that there could be potential reignition of the 36-year feud between the 2 nations concerning Nagorno-Karabakh, alongside this there is a fear that it could have intensifying effects on the war in Ukraine. As it stands Armenia is not in an ideal position as Azerbaijan has strengthened its ties with the UN as the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine has deemed the Azeris as vital for the UN to maintain some sort of control/variable in the region, combined with the fact that since the 2018 revolt in Armenia that brought to power Pashinyan, their ties to Russia have all but deteriorated. The claim of reintegration leaves the ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh with doubt regarding cultural or political rights but the main factor holding each side at bay is the already in place treaties and the negotiations that are overseen by third parties.