Background
The 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle has placed American democracy at a precarious intersection of advancing AI technology, manipulative deepfakes, and sophisticated foreign influence campaigns. As AI tools enable increasingly realistic and pervasive misinformation, American electoral integrity faces escalating threats, particularly as foreign and domestic actors leverage these technologies to amplify polarisation and distrust, inciting disillusionment in democratic norms. This brief seeks to explore the nuanced implications of disinformation on U.S. elections, critiques current countermeasures, and offers recommendations to protect public trust and safeguard democratic values.
A. Power of AI and Deepfake Technology in Disinformation Campaigns
AI and deepfake technologies revolutionised disinformation tactics, allowing realistic fabrications that can manipulate large audiences. These advancements make AI-driven disinformation a sophisticated tool in influencing democratic processes, enabling actors to deploy targeted misinformation that resonates and even manipulates specific voter demographics. Deepfakes of prominent figures, such as the 2023 video impersonating President Joe Biden to mislead New Hampshire voters, underscores AI tech’s potential to directly sway voter behaviour by fabricating authoritative messages that appear legitimate. Such cases highlight how deepfake disinformation campaigns can create a stringent effect on voter engagement, leaving the public distrustful not only of what is clearly false but increasingly of genuine content.
The "liar’s dividend" phenomenon, in which deepfakes cast doubt on even legitimate media, reflects an intensifying challenge for democratic societies. This erosion of trust in authentic information means that audiences are increasingly unsure of what they can believe. With AI tools growing more sophisticated, even seasoned journalists and researchers struggle to differentiate between authentic and AI-manipulated content without specialised software, hampering “choice transparency”. As a result, the once-stable foundation of public discourse and shared understanding of truth is threatened, which could lead to widespread disenfranchisement.
A recent European Union case illustrates the scale and complexity of disinformation threats on an international level. In recent months, thousands of AI-generated scam advertisements circulated across social media, spreading manipulated videos of European politicians on platforms like Facebook. These manipulated videos often presented fabricated messages that drew direct public interest, exploiting gaps in social media regulation. Even as platforms like Meta, TikTok, and X (formerly Twitter) pledged to curb AI-driven disinformation, the reach and effectiveness of these efforts remain uncertain. The EU case exemplifies that without rigorous regulation and collaboration with tech platforms, the rapid spread of deepfakes undermines political stability by manipulating public perception, ultimately eroding institutional credibility.
Furthermore, AI’s integration into campaigns amplifies its effectiveness by enabling targeted misinformation as it permits bad actors to personalise disinformation for distinct audiences, often stoking societal divides. In the U.S. context, this presents serious challenges, as deepfakes and AI-enhanced narratives are being deployed to polarise political opinions, eroding trust in democratic institutions - further inflaming partisan divisions. By blurring the lines between reality and manipulation, these technologies can lead to a disengaged or disillusioned electorate that questions the validity of its democracy. This pertinent issue creates an urgent need for proactive policy interventions, with technological advancement, delays in regulation could allow misinformation to embed itself further into the fabric of democratic elections. Measures to counteract deepfake disinformation, such as enforcing digital content verification standards, watermarking AI-generated media, and partnering with social media platforms for early detection, will prove critical in preserving public trust and ensuring a fair electoral process in the years ahead.
B. Foreign Influence and Information Warfare Targeting U.S. Electoral Integrity
Foreign interference in U.S. elections remains a formidable challenge, with disinformation campaigns by Russia, Iran, and China specifically aimed at destabilising American democracy to further own geopolitical imperatives. Unlike traditional interference, AI empowered disinformation can quickly adapt and amplify existing political biases, which these actors exploit to influence the American electorate. Russia, for instance, continues to support candidates with divisive rhetoric, while Iran has engaged in “hack-and-leak” operations targeting specific U.S. candidates. These influence efforts are amplified through AI, which allows foreign actors to manipulate the American public by fostering divisive and polarizing narratives. This strategic use of AI-driven information warfare not only influences campaign dynamics but also risks eroding the foundations of democratic dialogue, whereby facts and opinions can have diminished reliability. As political discourse becomes increasingly weaponized, democratic ideals like mutual respect and openness to opposing viewpoints are at risk. This new form of warfare is particularly dangerous for its ability to render democratic values less effective, leaving voters to navigate a landscape where information authenticity is neither assured nor trusted
C. Surveillance, Minority Privacy Concerns, and Erosion of Voter Trust
Recent AI-enabled surveillance initiatives, including facial recognition at ballot drop boxes, have raised significant privacy concerns. Such measures, often justified as necessary for fraud prevention, disproportionately impact marginalized communities, fuelling fears of voter intimidation. Minority groups, including Black and immigrant populations, have historically been susceptible to targeted suppression, and heightened surveillance and racial profiling may discourage their electoral participation. As AI continues to play a role in monitoring voter activity, it is critical to recognize that indiscriminate use of surveillance technology risks perpetuating a chilling effect on democratic engagement for these vulnerable communities.
Privacy concerns are not limited to surveillance at polling locations; disinformation specifically crafted to deceive minority voters is on the rise. Deepfake media and AI generated content have been tailored to exploit community-specific concerns, with the intent of either misinforming or disengaging these voters. Given this context, current surveillance measures may unintentionally harm trust in the voting process, especially within historically marginalised communities, resulting in disenfranchisement that undermines democratic inclusion.
D. Analytical Perspectives on Voter Privacy, Public Trust, and Ethical Considerations
The increased use of AI-driven disinformation poses an existential threat to public trust in democratic processes. With tools like deepfakes readily accessible, a new “post-truth” reality emerges, where AI can erode public confidence in electoral fairness. Compounding these issues, voter privacy concerns may intensify public scepticism and deter participation, especially within marginalized communities wary of surveillance. This erosion of trust poses a critical threat to the ethical foundation of American democracy, as transparency and accountability grow increasingly difficult to uphold. From an ethical viewpoint, the pervasive use of AI in disinformation campaigns and surveillance raises questions regarding the balance between electoral security and individual rights. Surveillance efforts may undermine the voter’s right to privacy, and unchecked AI driven disinformation could distort decision-making. To mitigate these risks, a recalibrated focus on transparency and privacy is essential to ensure that AI technologies are used responsibly by opting for risk analysis programs and enhanced legislation.
E. Predicting Deepfake Impact on U.S. Elections
ce of presidential elections between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the weaponisation of deepfakes could influence voter perceptions by circulating manipulated content that falsely portrays candidates or their positions. Such fabrications risk creating a climate of confusion where voters struggle to distinguish between reality and falsified media, eroding confidence in the electoral process.
However, enhancing voter literacy and awareness regarding the existence and function of deepfakes can serve as an essential line of defence. An informed electorate, equipped with the tools to critically evaluate the authenticity of digital content, significantly reduces the potential impact of disinformation. As voters become more adept at recognizing manipulation tactics, the disempowering effects of deepfake technology, such as fostering ideological divides or disillusionment with the democratic process, can potentially be mitigated.