The Trump Administration and Its Impact on Europe and Ukraine
The Trump administration has spooked European allies and Ukraine with its actions and comments that put American support for both the continent and the under-siege young democracy in heavy question. Europe holds its breath as the new US leadership stumbles through its very altered position from the previous government.
A Surprising Phone Call
President Donald Trump reportedly had a "lengthy and highly productive phone call" with President Vladimir Putin on the subject of the current war in Ukraine and peace. Such an event has put Europe and Ukraine on high alert. President Volodymyr Zelensky, in reaction to such news, asserted that Ukraine would accept no peace deal negotiated only between the United States and Russia. Kaja Kallas, head of the European Union’s foreign policy, warned against what she called a "quick fix" and "dirty deal".
National foreign ministers and defence secretaries expressed similar sentiments. Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called Trump’s call "out of the blue," the United Kingdom’s Secretary of Defence John Healey asserted, "There can be no negotiation about Ukraine without Ukraine," and Dutch Defence Secretary Ruben Brekelmans added that "The same is true for Europe." Both entities saw the phone call as leaving key actors in the situation out of the question. Both Ukrainian and European security remain on the line when it comes to the outcome of the war—Ukrainian security, of course, more so.
The American Position
As Trump’s phone call rattled multiple parties' involvement, Vice President JD Vance’s recent comments have put new light on the American position. Sanctions and even US military involvement were put on the table by Vance if Russia were to not accept a "satisfactory deal." Stating that there were "economic tools of leverage and, of course, military tools of leverage" available to use against Putin. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the United States has an interest in the long-term independence of Ukraine as well.
These actions and statements have placed a sort of whirlwind of confusion among actors, though there are clear positions from the current US administration. One being the refusal of Ukraine to ever be admitted into NATO, as stated by Trump, due to Putin never accepting it. Such a statement could be seen as a premature concession for the pleasure of Putin. Though US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth asserted that the US was not making premature concessions despite differing views from European counterparts.
Groans of the Britons (Europeans)
Undoubtedly, Europe sees the upcoming situation and, despite limited capability compared to the United States, has positioned itself to support Ukraine regardless of American sentiments. More "extreme" measures are now becoming moderate or even previously necessary. French President Emmanuel Macron, about a year ago, stated his refusal to rule out French troops on the ground in Ukraine as an option. Such a statement was seen as unnecessary or even dangerous then.
Now, it is a policy being considered. With the possibility of a deal being reached, the United Kingdom and France have discussed the concepts of a security force in Ukraine to secure peace and act as a bulwark against future Russian aggression. Such ideas are now Europe-wide, though realities creep upon the ambition. Former Commanding General of US Army Europe Ben Hodges suggests that such a force has to be one that "the Russians know that if they ever tested it, they would get crushed. And you can be sure that Russia will test it."
The size of the force is up in the air, with President Zelensky insisting on at least 100,000 to 150,000 troops, but with media speculations being around 30,000 to 40,000. Macron himself, famously known for his strong stance on Ukraine, even admits deploying a huge force is "far-fetched."
Upcoming Talks
A face-to-face meeting between Trump and Putin is planned to be held in Saudi Arabia, though the specific date is unknown. Zelensky has recently met with Vance at the Munich Security Conference. There, he revealed a willingness to meet face-to-face with Putin in an effort for peace. It remains to be seen where these new negotiations will lead. One can only hope that the security of Ukraine and Europe will be at the top of priorities.
