When Pakistan and Saudi Arabia announced a new defence cooperation pact this week, the move at first appeared routine. After all, military ties between the two states stretch back more than half a century. Yet the context in which this deal arrives roughly just over a week since an Israeli strike inside Qatari territory reveals deeper anxieties about sovereignty, security guarantees, and shifting alliances across the Gulf and South Asia. To understand why this agreement matters, it is necessary to revisit the history that binds Islamabad and Riyadh, and to consider how today’s increasingly volatile geopolitics reshapes that bond.
A Relationship Forged in History
Saudi Arabia has long regarded Pakistan as its most reliable military partner in the Muslim world. As early as the 1960s, Pakistani officers began training Saudi forces, and by the late 1970s thousands of Pakistani troops were stationed on Saudi soil. During the Iran–Iraq War, Islamabad provided both manpower and expertise to Riyadh, while in the 1990–91 Gulf War, Pakistan reinforced Saudi air defences and deployed a full division to protect the kingdom’s borders.
In return, Saudi Arabia became Pakistan’s economic lifeline. Whenever Islamabad faced balance-of-payments crises from the oil shocks of the 1970s to the IMF negotiations of the 2010s, Riyadh in turn provided emergency loans, deferred oil payments, and remittance inflows that kept the economy afloat. This economic-security compact created a relationship of asymmetrical but enduring interdependence: Saudi Arabia relied on Pakistani manpower and military professionalism; Pakistan relied on Saudi capital and energy flows.
Religious legitimacy reinforced the bond. As custodian of Islam’s holiest sites, Saudi Arabia projected leadership in the Muslim world, while Pakistan positioned itself as the only Muslim-majority nuclear power and a capable conventional force. Together, their cooperation was framed not only as a strategic arrangement but as a partnership rooted in “Islamic solidarity”, frequently highlighted in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Interestingly Pakistan’s former Chief of Army Staff Raheel Sharif is also serving as the head of the Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition alliance which is headquartered in Saudi Arabia.
Why This Deal, and Why Now?
Against that backdrop, the latest defence pact is less a novelty than a renewal. Yet the timing is critical. The Israeli strike inside Qatar, described by Doha as a violation of its sovereignty, sent shockwaves through Gulf capitals. For smaller states, it was a reminder that U.S. bases and Western security guarantees do not always prevent escalation or cross-border action by regional powers. Saudi Arabia, already recalibrating its alliances and diversifying beyond Washington likely saw the episode as a warning.
For Riyadh, deepening defence cooperation with Pakistan is a hedge: if the U.S. is perceived as an unreliable guarantor and Israel demonstrates a willingness to operate militarily in the Gulf, then aligning with a nuclear-armed Muslim partner restores a sense of strategic depth. For Islamabad, the incentive is equally clear. Pakistan’s economy remains fragile, external financing needs are pressing, and India’s growing economic footprint in the Gulf particularly in the UAE has risked sidelining Islamabad from a region where it once had near-exclusive military influence. Re-energising ties with Riyadh allows Pakistan to reassert relevance, while also securing potential financial and energy concessions.
Regional Reverberations
The implications of this deal extend well beyond the two capitals.
- For India, the agreement complicates years of careful diplomacy aimed at building a strong partnership with Riyadh. India has invested heavily in refining, infrastructure, and energy projects linked to Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. A visible Saudi tilt back toward Pakistan raises concerns in New Delhi that these investments may carry political strings, and that India’s ambitions in the Gulf could be undercut by security considerations.
- For Iran, the move reinforces perceptions of encirclement. Tehran has long worried about Pakistani alignment with Riyadh, particularly given unrest along the Iran–Pakistan border in Balochistan. The Qatar strike only deepens those anxieties: Israel has shown a readiness to project force deep into the Gulf, and Iran may interpret Saudi–Pakistani defence cooperation as further evidence of a hostile Sunni bloc forming against it. This dynamic may push Iran to tighten ties with both Doha and New Delhi, cementing an alternative axis across the Arabian Sea.
- For Israel, the timing could not be worse. Riyadh had been cautiously exploring normalisation under U.S. pressure, balancing its security needs against domestic and regional sensitivities. But Saudi defence alignment with Pakistan, a country that does not recognise Israel and where public opinion is strongly opposed to any recognition narrows Riyadh’s room for manoeuvre. Normalisation now risks being interpreted not as pragmatic statecraft but as a betrayal of Islamic solidarity.
- For Qatar itself, the defence deal serves as an indirect consequence of its own vulnerability. The violation of its airspace exposed the limitations of hosting Western military bases as a deterrent. Saudi Arabia, which views itself as equally exposed to external strike risk, now seeks to strengthen its deterrent posture by reinforcing traditional alliances.
For the United States and China, the contrast is striking. Washington, once the undisputed security guarantor of the Gulf, now sees allies diversify their defence portfolios, reducing U.S. leverage. Beijing, by contrast, has embedded itself economically in both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, and can quietly benefit from closer military ties between its two partners. For China, which already views Pakistan as a Belt and Road anchor and Saudi Arabia as a vital oil supplier, the deal adds another thread to its growing web of influence.
The Nuclear Shadow
Hovering above all of this is Pakistan’s nuclear capability. Riyadh has never hidden its view of Pakistan as the Muslim world’s ultimate deterrent, a latent backstop if Iran were to achieve nuclear status. Although the new defence deal makes no reference to nuclear cooperation, the very fact of renewed military alignment will raise questions in Tel Aviv, New Delhi, and Washington about whether Saudi Arabia is positioning itself to demand Pakistani nuclear guarantees in a crisis. Even if largely symbolic, the perception of a nuclear umbrella. Even if largely symbolic, the perception of a nuclear umbrella complicates an already fragile regional balance
Economic and Defence Industry Linkages
The agreement also intersects with Saudi Arabia’s domestic ambitions. Under Vision 2030, Riyadh wants half of its defence spending to be localised, reducing reliance on Western contractors. Pakistani expertise offers low-cost pathways into drone development, small arms production, and training programmes through companies such as Heavy Industries Taxila. For Islamabad, this represents an opportunity to diversify its defence exports, gain access to capital, and deepen long-term integration into Gulf economies. Energy concessions could follow; discounted oil or deferred payment schemes have historically been part of the quid pro quo for military cooperation.
A Renewed but Risky Compact
Ultimately, the Pakistan–Saudi defence pact illustrates how historic relationships are recast by immediate shocks. What began in the 1960s as a pragmatic exchange of security for financial support is today reframed by fears of sovereignty violation, the unpredictability of Israel, and the unreliability of American guarantees.
For Pakistan, the rewards are obvious: financial relief, strategic relevance, and renewed influence in the Gulf. But the risks are just as real: deeper dependency on Saudi capital and potential entanglement in Middle Eastern conflicts that Islamabad has historically tried to avoid. For Saudi Arabia, the pact bolsters deterrence and Islamic legitimacy, but at the potential cost of complicating ties with India, Iran, and Israel.
In the wider strategic picture, this deal is a symptom of the Gulf States in flux. Israel’s strike in Qatar served as a catalyst, reminding all regional actors that sovereignty can be violated in an instant. The response from Riyadh was to reach back to one of its oldest and most reliable partners and to make that alliance visible again. Whether this renewal stabilises the region or further polarises it will depend less on the paper of the pact and more on the crises that are sure to follow.