The Middle East has been thrust into another somewhat expected period of conflict between Iran and Israel following October 7, leading to an aggressive Israeli military campaign in Gaza and a surge in regional tensions. Israel's retaliatory operations have seen significant aerial and ground action in Gaza, and the conflict has spread across borders, drawing in countries and militant groups that had previously maintained a tense but largely non-combative stance. The possibility of a wider regional conflict is something no one is willing to write off, a conflict involving Iran, Hezbollah, and other state and non-state actors with strategic interests.
Israeli Strikes in Iran
An alarming escalation in its shadow war with Iran, Israel launched a number of airstrikes targeting Tehran directly on October 25, 2024. The strike was aimed at key military installations reportedly tied to Iran’s missile production and research capabilities. It is said that the strike was conducted in retaliation to Iran’s strike on Israel only around 3 weeks ago. This strike was justified by Israel as a pre-emptive strike aimed at crippling Iran's capability to supply their proxy groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah with advanced weaponry, which Israel views as a real threat to its security.
Iran reportedly turned on advanced air defences around Tehran and intercepted a heavy majority of Israel's incoming projectiles. This capability is part of the recent effort by Iran to upgrade its defence systems against hi-tech aerial threats, amid an increase of Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure. Iranian officials slammed the attack as an act of aggression that would not go unanswered.
The Tehran strike underlines Israel's readiness to strike at Iran's heartland, its latest shift away from a tradition of attacking Iranian interests in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. In targeting Tehran, Israel is indicating that it will try to curb Iran's regional reach, even at the risk of wider escalation. The incident gives an increased urgency to international diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions across the Middle East.
The Israel-Hezbollah Front: Tensions in Lebanon
Lebanon remains another hotbed, with Hezbollah engaged in daily exchanges of fire with Israeli forces. Tensions have escalated along the Israel-Lebanon border, where Israel’s military operations have targeted Hezbollah, and in turn, Hezbollah has launched rockets and staged ambushes on Israeli military posts, with the Israeli military suffering from more casualties than expected. Hezbollah’s involvement demonstrates its alignment with Iran’s interests and its determination to counter what it views as Israeli aggression.Hezbollah’s capabilities, honed over years of involvement in Syria and Iraq, have thus far proven effective in resisting Israeli advances. Reports suggest that Hezbollah has managed to repel potential Israeli incursions into Lebanon, positioning itself as a formidable force in the region and reinforcing its role as Iran’s primary ally in the anti-Israel axis. Israel’s prolonged presence along Lebanon’s border indicates its intent to limit Hezbollah’s capabilities, though a full-scale invasion seems improbable given Hezbollah’s demonstrated ability to resist occupation efforts
Iran’s Regional Strategy: Proxy Power and Defensive Tactics
Iran’s strategy has increasingly been focused on supporting and coordinating with proxy groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis in Yemen, enhancing its regional influence while avoiding direct confrontations. These groups, though motivated by local grievances, act as a deterrent against Israel and U.S. interests in the Middle East, enabling Iran to project power beyond its borders.
Iran’s successful defence against recent Israeli airstrikes reflects the countries true capabilities, despite harsh sanctions imposed by the US and the US’ allies. Iranian media presents these victories as evidence of its ability to safeguard its allies and interests across the region. Moreover, Iran’s calculated response, avoiding direct confrontation with Israel, has helped it maintain a position of restraint while signalling its resolve to protect its regional allies, a stance that could attract further sympathy from other Middle Eastern nations critical of Israel’s actions in Gaza.