Election Coverage: Sri Lanka

Situated in South Asia, the island country of Sri Lanka will be having presidential elections on 21^st September 2024. This election will play a crucial role in shaping the country's political future, especially following recent economic and political crises. The country experienced widespread protests in 2022 due to severe economic challenges, which led to the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. The current President is Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Sri Lanka has a population nearing 23 million, and poverty rates continue to rise for the fourth year in a row, with an estimated 25.9% of Sri Lankans living below the poverty line in 2023. Despite the economic turndown in 2022, the forecasted GDP growth is a positive for Sri Lanka with an estimation of 2.2%.  Inflation is also forecasted to be at 7.8%, which is lower than 2023’s rate of 17.4% and much lower than the 2022 rate of 46.4%. 

The 2022 Sri Lankan protests, known as the Aragalaya (meaning "struggle" in Sinhala), were widespread anti-government demonstrations that took place across the country in response to severe economic mismanagement, corruption, and a collapse of public services. There were several factors that led to the widespread protests, and the main ones are listed below.

Economic Crisis

1. Debt and Mismanagement: Sri Lanka had accumulated significant debt, largely due to borrowing for large infrastructure projects and other expenditures. Mismanagement of these resources, along with corruption, led to an unsustainable financial situation.
2. Impact of COVID-19: The pandemic severely impacted Sri Lanka’s key sectors, particularly tourism, which is a major source of foreign exchange. This further strained the country's economy.
3. Shortages and Inflation: The economic mismanagement resulted in severe shortages of essential goods, such as food, fuel, and medicine. Inflation surged, making basic necessities unaffordable for many Sri Lankans.

Protests and Political Unrest

1. Outbreak of Protests: In early 2022, widespread protests began as people struggled with the daily impact of shortages and inflation. Demonstrators criticized the government’s handling of the crisis, calling for immediate relief and accountability.
2. Occupation of Government Buildings: Protests intensified, leading to the occupation of key government buildings. On July 9, 2022, protesters stormed the presidential palace and other significant sites in Colombo, the capital city.

1. Resignation of President Rajapaksa: Facing mounting pressure and unrest, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country and resigned from office in July 2022. His departure marked a significant turning point in the protests.
2. New Leadership: Ranil Wickremesinghe, who was then the Prime Minister, was appointed as the new President in July 2022. His leadership was seen as a necessary step towards stabilizing the country, though the economic and political challenges remained substantial.

Aftermath and Reforms

1. Economic Reforms: The new government faced the challenge of negotiating with international creditors and implementing economic reforms to stabilize the country. This included measures to manage debt, seek financial assistance from organizations like the IMF, and address systemic corruption.
2. Political Changes: The protests underscored the need for broader political reforms in Sri Lanka. The population's frustration with the political elite and their demand for more transparency and accountability remained a central issue.

The protests of 2022 were a significant moment in Sri Lanka’s history, reflecting deep-seated issues in governance and economic management

Main candidates and opinion polls:

The main candidates for the 2024 Sri Lankan presidential election are as follows.

1. Ranil Wickremesinghe: The current president, who took office in July 2022 following the resignation of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, may run again. Wickremesinghe, from the United National Party (UNP), has played a role in stabilizing the country amid economic chaos.
2. Members of the Rajapaksa family: The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), the party dominated by the Rajapaksa family, may field a candidate. Despite the backlash against Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the family still holds influence in Sri Lankan politics.
3. Sajith Premadasa: Leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), and a strong opposition figure, Premadasa ran in the 2019 presidential election. He is likely to campaign again, focusing on economic reforms and governance.
4. Anura Kumara Dissanayake (NPP - National People's Power): The leader of the NPP, he is a major contender, popular for his anti-corruption and progressive stance, especially among younger voters.

Other smaller parties may nominate candidates, but here are the key political figures opinion polls for the 2024 race.

1. Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) from the National People's Power (NPP), who currently leads in opinion polls with 36-43% of voter support.
2. Ranil Wickremesinghe, the incumbent president, has seen growing support and is polling at 20-27%.
3. Sajith Premadasa from the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), whose support ranges between 22-32%.
4. Namal Rajapaksa, representing the Rajapaksa family’s political legacy, is polling around 3%.

The race appears tight, with AKD leading among younger and urban voters, especially in most provinces except the Northern and Eastern regions, where Sajith Premadasa holds a lead. Wickremesinghe’s support is stronger among older voters. The polls also indicate that no candidate will secure over 50% of the vote, likely leading to a second round of counting based on voters' second and third preferences.

The election reflects widespread dissatisfaction with economic inequality and government performance​

Whether Sri Lanka will grow economically or be shackled down by corruption, one thing seems likely. These elections will be a close race.