Moldova, a small country amongst the poorest in Europe between Romania and Ukraine, is having presidential elections on 20th October. This is crucial for itself and for the region as it could determine future economic and diplomatic shifts which could potentially affect the conflict next door.
Current situation and economic background:
Moldova has a GDP of 16.54 billion USD back in 2023, making it among the poorest countries in the EU. However, it does have a real GDP growth rate of 2.6% predicted for this year, which shows that the economy has recovered FDI and productivity, a lack of skilled workers, and dependence of external financial support, such as remittances and international financial aid.
Inflation in the country is a steady 5.2% after a steep decline from 34.62% two years ago. This figure suggests that despite external factors affecting the markets, the Moldovan government was able to stop it spiralling, which is a positive. However, for long term goals it needs to address low productivity and infrastructure issues in order to expand as a country and become a ‘useful’ member of the EU. The date of the EU Accession for Moldova is 2030, so this is one of the reasons why these elections are so crucial. The EU must have seen signs that Moldova is changing as a country, but questions rise to whether it was due to economic shifts in the country, or a forced diplomatic decision to stop Russia expanding closer to NATO territory.
Candidates and polls:
The main candidates for these elections are as follows:
- Maia Sandu – The current President. She is the founder of PAS, Party of Action and Solidarity. It is a liberal political party as well as a pro-European party. She is seeking her second term as Prime Minister.
- Alexandr Stoianoglo – Former Prosecutor General of Moldova. Currently a member of The Socialist Party of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM).
- Renato Usatii – Former mayor of Balti. He is the Chair for the political party, Our Party. The organisation / some members of the organisation or in favour of Russian influence and politics as well as adopting some EU policies but rejecting most EU policies.
- Vasile Tarlev – Former Prime Minister of Moldova (2001 to 2008). Currently the leader of a small political party named the Future of Moldova Party.
- Ion Chicu – Former Prime Minister (2019-2020). Currently a leader of PDCM (The Party of Development and Consolidation of Moldova). It was founded in March 2021.
The polls of these candidates are listed below:
- Maia Sandu – Party of Action and Solidarity – 37.6%
- Alexandr Stoianoglo – PSRM – 15.4%
- Renato Ustaii - Our party (PN) – 13.4%
- Vasile Tarlev – Future of Moldova Party – Predicted at less than 10%
- Ion Chicu – PDCM – 4.6%
The other candidates take around 20% of the polls but are a minority.
The poll put support for EU membership at 56% among decided voters with 34% opposed.
Wider context:
Since the Russia-Ukraine Conflict in 2022, Moldova has experienced quite a few changes, from economic shifts to diplomatic ties. First, Internal changes include influx of refugees, more than one million Ukrainians fled to Moldova at the start of the war, however only around 116,000 refugees have stayed. Moldova’s population nears 3,000,000; that’s around a 3.33% increase. That’s a 3.33% increase in demand for supplies, housing, jobs, etc, some of which are already low in supply. Only 45% of Moldova’s population have access to good quality water. However Moldovan citizens prepared themselves to help with the refugee crisis and were able to provide food, supplies, and helped with putting up tents and shelter, since the start of the war, the EU has provided Moldova 76 million euros in humanitarian assistance. So, despite the influx of refugees, Moldova’s supplies seem to be unaffected by the refugees, but rather a problem which started much before 2022.
External changes include an increase in relations between neutral organisation, such as the EU, NATO, and an increase of Russian influence. Despite Moldova not being part of NATO or the EU just yet, it still gets a variety of support, from humanitarian assistance as mentioned earlier, to support for Moldovan defence forces and their preparedness in the region. As Moldova is a former soviet republic, it still has ties to Russia, which Russia wants to hold onto as it may see Moldova as a strategic point in the wider battlefield. Close to Crimea and NATO countries. It also has fertile resources which can be exported through Ukraine, as Moldova is landlocked and relies mainly on airports, inland ports, and underground pipes for supplies.
So, in the short-term Moldova may become a battlefield, not necessarily on the ground, but rather behind the scenes for external organisations to lash out at each other, while itself remains neutral. But in the long-term, the new government needs to decide which side of the fence they are on, or to just stay where they are. But the move to become a full member of the EU by 2030 may have already set the snowball rolling down the hill.