On October 26, 2024, Georgia went to the polls, the nation is at a turning point that has the potential to define its future trajectory for years to come. This is not just another election; it is a defining moment that will orient the country towards either Moscow or Brussels. Given the country’s complex history of East-West relations, Georgia’s 2024 parliamentary elections are likely to shift the country’s position in a spectrum of international relations, affecting domestic and foreign politics and alliances alike.
It’s Political: The State of the Nation
Since 2012, the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party has been facing challenges from the pro-European opposition coalition, which previously seemed impossible. For over a decade, Georgian Dream has been in power, but the situation is changing for the party amidst growing discontent and loss of trust from the people’s side. The opposition claims that GD's policies are pro-Russian and frustrates the development of democratic processes in Georgia and even puts the independence at risk. Some implying that a fourth term for GD could intensify authoritarianism in Georgia with consequences for its democratic project and even autonomy.
In light of this, GD claims that it is the only party capable of sustaining both Russian and Western engagement without compromising the security of Georgia against turbulence in the region. Pro-European elements, on the other hand, contend that this policy threatens the very independence and sovereignty of the state.
A European Future? Opposition’s Vision for Democracy
Western-oriented opposition groups, and specifically the United National Movement (UNM), have benefitted much from the increased popularity of European integration among the masses by offering the chance of EU and Europeanized democracy. This platform has received much support from young, city-dwelling Georgians for whom EU membership promises economic, security and political freedom from Moscow.
Pro-EU marches and public rallies demonstrate how the local women and men organize themselves to support this ideal vision of the state, showing that this is a nation split but is highly mobilized.
A vote for the European Future and putting Georgia in the European Union is very well deemed to those who want the country to get rid of the Russian influence and have a more open and civilized politics.
Risk and challenges: The influence of Russia
The risk factors in this election are high, as are the risks arising from outside influences. In the view of certain observers, there is a worry about election meddling with particularly those sectors of Russian interests that would want elections in GD to be favorable. Given how Russia has a record of tempering with the elections of several countries within its former Soviet Union domain, many are anxious that the results will be influenced by disinformation and smear campaigns, targeted at certain parties, cyber wars, or even worse, charities’ giving to certain parties. This may also heighten tensions and even provoke unrest in that region.
To make matters worse, the absence of dependable opinion surveys and clear statistics creates a difficulty for forecasting the outcome of the election. Independent monitoring bodies have classified these elections as a ‘high-risk’ scenario vulnerable to rigging.
Conclusion: Georgia's Thorough Testing
Citizens of Georgia face a decision that has the potential to change the status and political line of the country for decades to come. This election is not only for the citizens- it is also a historical reckoning in economic and political sphere that takes place in the whole South Caucasian region. If the ruling party Georgia Dream wins, the ruling party can be expected to succeed in completing its policy of East West balance at the peril of aspiring closer relations with Moscow. On the contrary, if the European minded opposition wins, it will mean Georgia will irrevocably choose a European path, enhancing the democracy in its country and İncreasing its degrees of freedom towards the European union membership.
The world will keep observing the processes as Georgia embarks on this critical step, one that will determine its position as well as alliances in a world that is gradually becoming more divided. This election might be the one that would finally change Georgia from within as well as the role it plays in the politics of the region and beyond.