As we approach 600 days since the start of the Sudanese Civil war, the impact has been and continues to be devastating to millions in and out of the country. Developments regarding the war are difficult to navigate and whilst there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel, the path to the end of the war is far from linear.
For information regarding the earlier figures and origins of the war turn back to the 12th Edition of MacroSfera. For a simplified summary on the origins of the war the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamad Hamdan Dagalo ‘Hemedti’, started a campaign against the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) stating that the army led government was in the wrong hands of Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. However, this started before 15th April 2023 as it appears that there had been a gradual breakdown of the relationship between the generals from their successful coup against Omar al-Bashir in 2019. A Transitional Sovereignty Council was in place from the 20th August 2019 but was deemed unsuccessful in ‘giving the country what they need’ and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan was reinstated as president on the 25th October 2021.
Key information regarding Sudan is that Khartoum is the capital city and the other important and directly impacted regions in the country are Gezira state and Darfur. Darfur is a western region divided into 5 states which have had their own turmoil long before the war. Since April 15th 2023, there have been just shy of 9,000 recorded attacks averaging roughly 16 attacks a day.
The current situation is as follows:
- Khartoum has been partially regained by the SAF after skirmishes and combat in recent weeks pushing the RSF back
- Khartoum has suffered approximately 54% of all recorded attacks
- North Darfur, one of the 5 Darfuri states, has faced 9% of attacks alone
- Around 25% of attacks have been taken place in South Darfur, North Kordofan, and West Darfur alongside the rest being spread across the nation
- There appears to be no peace talks going with trust running thin after the numerous truce violations by the RSF
- Abu Aqla Kaykil, a commander of the RSF in Al Jazirah recently surrendered to the SAF he was welcomed with open arms with officials stating he “chose the side of righteousness”, this goes back to the word of al-Burhan where he stated anyone who defects from the RSF to the SAF will be pardoned
- Death toll has risen and is much higher than initially anticipated and recorded as the RSF continue to tear through villages leaving trails of bodies behind
- Millions have fled their homes and thousands continue to do so as the war does not seem to be drawing to a close
- An estimate of around 14+ million people have been displaced accounting to ~30% of the 48 million population
- General Burhan has said that the RSF should be considered a terrorist group during his address to the UN General Assembly on the 26th of September
- A UN spokesperson has also stated that the RSF has violated international humanitarian law and conducted war crimes by large numbers of harming, raping, and killing civilians
- The UN has also discussed scaling up aid delivery and protection of civilians