On India
Modi projected to sweep over 400 seats underperformed, achieving below 272 parliamentary seats required for a majority. Yet Modi will still govern India through a coalition seen as an “economic victory” for India. Modi (to most) is a strongman for Indian prosperity, economic growth and autonomy but to his opposition he is a divisive, radicalistic leader who is willing to pit people of different faiths against each other for his own political gain. India’s economic success story has not just been driven by Modi but by close collusion between the government and leading businessmen such as Ambani and Adani. Not too long ago, the Adani Group was a “victim” of a Hindenburg report alleging embezzlement and tax avoidance, this saw almost $150bn worth of share value wiped out.
Elections are huge catalysts for equity markets, whilst news of Modi losing his majority broke, Indian markets plunged almost $400 billion yet consequently rose after Modi’s victory was confirmed. This is being hailed by the Congress Party (opposition) as market manipulation from the BJP, they also allege that foreign investors benefitted unfairly.
Note: Only Indians and approved Institutions can invest through Indian exchanges, yet India still enjoys huge growth in its equity markets due to a high domestic participation rate and attractiveness.
On Mexico
Mexico’s election has resulted in its first Female President and former Mayor of Mexico City: Claudia Sheinbaum. Sheinbaum is also Climate Physicist by profession. By nature, she seems to be completely unlike her predecessor and is more left leaning than AMLO, who gave the military far more power to combat the sprawling influence of the cartel, whether she can maintain an iron grip is yet to be seen.
Yet these elections are not really to be celebrated with political candidates across the country being assassinated whilst others have been forced to drop out, a female mayor was killed hours after Sheinbaum’s victory. Sheinbaum in her campaign trail vowed to combat the cartels but they very much remain in control. Mexico is still viewed as an emerging market, yet the might of the cartel continues to prevent economic goals being actualized.