China-US Relations are a continual source of tension for the international community, be it the ‘tariff wars’, the TikTok ordeal, and now building military escalation from China
as decapitation fears grow, this article will examine the current state of affairs between the nuclear powers. In particular, the recent developments draw on deeper neorealist
theory, and allows us to revisit the concept of fear as a driving factor within the IR realm.
Provocation or Protocol?
To frame the relationship between the US and China as singularly tense or turbulent would be reductive. Simultaneously, the two powers have seemingly agreed on the long awaited TikTok Deal, a story which dominated international headlines last year. Although last month Trump had touted a thawing of relations, a formal agreement has yet to be materialised. China has historically been reluctant to concede control of its algorithm combined with Washington’s premature political gestures paint an unclear image of the state of affairs between the two superpowers.
Yet, mounting military steps taken by China’s top leaders certainly call for concern. Though the prospect of the US overthrowing China’s government is unfathomable in the
current political climate, evidence brought to Beijing indicates genuine worry. The hardening of Beijing's military position is clear, as seen in the expansion of its nuclear triad and its stricter impositions regarding trade. On September 3rd, China’s Defence Secretary Don Jun issued a warning to Washington, stating that acts of deterrence against China will not succeed’. In another move to signal military strength, the leadership recently announced that the Fujian had sailed between Taiwan and China, a region of particular tension. According to the Pentagon, it is estimated China’s nuclear arsenal has doubled since 2020. At various conferences, Xi has claimed whilst China is not seeking hegemony, it will become an intractable rival to the US, signalling at perhaps a renewed period of prolonged tension.
Realism Revisited
The US’s long range strike activity especially has provoked the Chinese leadership, with thoughts of a ‘decapitation rehearsal’ potentially escalating military tension but in misperception. In fact, any display of the US’s military capabilities could signal a kind of threat to China. For instance, according to researchers at a Chinese foreign ministry think tank, even deployments to South Korea could drive concerns. In fact, historical references to the West’s attack on Suddam Hussein and their involvement in the Gulf Wars could help anticipate the US’s attempt to ‘neutralise’ China’s government.
Behind this cryptic messaging used by both powers reveals on a fundamental level how international relations functions. Fear as the primary desire to act is well documented in the work of neo-realist authors Waltz and Mearsheimer. Both theorists characterise anarchy and conflict as features that are embedded into the international system, and therefore states act not to dominate or seek hegemony, but to merely survive in self defense. In this sense, China’s subtle but steady responses to the US are driven by a need for security, and even defensive actions can be misperceived as threats. This emphasises the urgency for constructive dialogue and escalation management. In fact, according to the RAND study, ‘Denial without Disaster - Keeping a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan under the Nuclear Threshold’, the U.S ought to closely consider its targeting and timing of even conventional, routine military procedures. This echoes the neorealist argument that perception drives state behaviour, defence and aggression can appear one and the same.