The US primaries in 2024 is a main focus point politically for many Americans. Despite its importance, low voter turnout seems to be a concern. Moreover, voting patterns by race seems to have shifted radically as millions of voters, especially minorities, seem to have completely shifted their political stance, moving from one side of the political spectrum to the other
A Comparative Look at Turnout Trends
Turnout was lower this year compared to what was seen in the previous two presidential primaries.
Reflected especially in the larger states like Texas and California.
Texas witnessed a 7.3% drop in turnout from 2020 to 2024. California saw a 26% drop.
An analysis by Washington post found that only 1 in 10 eligible voters took part in the primaries and caucuses which assisted Trump and Biden in attaining their delegates.
Demographic voting patterns
Eligible black voters’ number at 34.4 million (14% of all voters)
During the 2020 general elections, it was seen that 92% of black voters were backing Biden. However, revealing polls have highlighted how Biden is losing these votes to Trump in 2024.
A survey by the New York Times and Siena College revealed how 23% of Black participants would vote for Trump, compared to 4% of that same poll in October 2020.
Asian voters are expected to number around 15 million voters this year, or 6.1% of all eligible voters.
72% said they would vote for Biden with 28% finding Trump to be the better candidate.
In 2024, it was seen that the number of Hispanics eligible to vote had also increased to around 36.2 million.
Biden or Trump
- Both Trump and Biden attained party nominations through primary victories, acquiring enough delegate support to solidify their positions for the 2024 presidential race.
- Trump has managed to secure 1253 delegates so far with Biden securing a larger 2107.
- Polls show that many previous Black voters for Biden are shifting their vote to Trump.
- However, it was seen that Biden has a marginal 1-point lead over Trump (Reuters/Ipsos poll)
- With Trump having an edge over Biden in terms of favorability, it could be said that a victory for Trump isn’t unreasonable to say.
- It also seems that Republicans in general are more enthusiastic about another term with Trump in office (43%) than Democrats are with Biden (22%).
All in all, the 2024 primaries reflected a significant decrease in turnout, notably in in Texas and California. Biden's loss of Black voter support to Trump highlights a demographic shift, while Asian and Hispanic voter numbers continue to rise. Polls highlight a tight contest, with Biden holding a marginal lead over Trump. However, Trump's favorability edge and higher enthusiasm levels among Republicans suggests a potential for his victory.