United Kingdom
The UK fell into recession at the end of 2023
· GDP fell 0.3% in 2023 Q4
· GDP fell 0.1% in 2023 Q3
o This throws the UK into a technical recession.
· Output per head fell 0.7% in 2023.
o Output per head has been constantly falling since 2022 Q1
· Rishi Sunak’s pledge to ‘Grow the Economy’ falls short.
· Jeremy Hunt considers slashing billions from public spending plans.
o Hunt may need to cut public spending to fund tax cuts in the lead-up to elections
· Andrew Bailey claimed this recession is very shallow and not something to be too concerned about.
o BoE increases its 2024 forecast to 0.25% growth
o 0.75% growth forecasted for 2025
Japan
Japan slips into recession, losing its spot as the 3rd largest economy.
· Real GDP fell by 0.1% in Q4 2023
· Q3 growth was also revised to -0.8%
· Rising cost of living and a fall in real wages has contributed to this.
o The Japanese yen is growing weaker, falling by almost 20% against the US dollar over 2023 and 2022
· Increases in exports have slightly softened the blow
· Japanese population has been steadily ageing and shrinking
· Germany’s GDP stands at $4.5tn, overtaking Japan, who fell to $4.2tn
· Japan may no longer be able to exit its negative interest rate (-0.1%) due to this development.
· Private consumption fell 0.2% in Q4 and 0.3% in Q3
